Emission scenarios

How are global emissions projected to develop in the years to come? To reach pathways consistent with the goals in the Paris Agreement, global CO₂ emissions should be falling by around five percent this year.

The latest report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) completes its trilogy on causes, impacts and solutions relating to global warming. The key to understanding the solutions lie in the scenarios that illustrate how society may develop towards a carbon-free future.

During the recent Glasgow Climate Conference (COP26) there was a lot of focus on the climate outcomes of new climate policy pledges. A new analysis shows that these outcomes are more uncertain then often assumed.

A relatively unknown greenhouse gas plays an important role in climate and ozone depletion, and its importance will continue to increase to meet the growing demand for food, fibre, and energy.

COMMENTARY: A new paper suggests a rather significant upward revision of the carbon budget for 1.5°C. This is a potential game changer, but it is too early to reformulate mitigation plans.

COMMENTARY: Despite the complexity of the climate system, there is a rather simple relationship between the long-term temperature increase and the total amount of carbon dioxide emitted. Why, then, is there no clear answer to how much we can emit?