Global fossil CO₂ emissions are projected to rise in 2023
How are global emissions projected to develop in the years to come? To reach pathways consistent with the goals in the Paris Agreement, global CO₂ emissions should be falling by around five percent this year.
Senior researcher Glen Peters at CICERO Center for International Climate Research says it looks like global fossil CO₂ emissions will rise ~1% in 2023, based on the latest data from various reports from the International Energy Agency. Current projections suggest that co₂ emissions will increase by between 0,5 per cent and 1,5 per cent.
"To reach pathways consistent with the goals in the Paris Agreement, global CO₂ emissions should be falling by around five percent this year", says Peters.
“This is just not happening. Each year, that emissions keep rising makes it even harder to reach the Paris targets and locks the world into even more climate impacts” Peters said to iNews in August. The final analysis will be presented at COP28 within the Global Carbon Budget project, on December 5th 2023.
During the pandemic the world’s total emission went down for the first time in decades, but emissions are now on the rise to new record-levels.
The main sources for emissions are energy consumption (electricity and heating), transport (cars, planes), manufacturing, construction and food production.
“Renewables are growing fast, but coal oil and gas still dominate the global energy system”, says Peters. Wind and solar are the ones growing rapidly, but there is not a strong enough signal from solar and wind yet in terms of emission reductions.
Watch the recording of the event where the projections were presented, at Arendalsuka 16. August 2023:
What is happening with global emissions?
CICERO is helping to develop a new global emissions monitoring service (Coco₂)
Together with 24 partners in 14 countries, CICERO is working to develop a European operational service for monitoring global greenhouse gas emissions, as part of the EU-funded project Prototype system for a Copernicus co₂ service, the Coco₂ project.
Carbon budget | Carbon emissions globally