The research group works to understand the trends and drivers of historical and future emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, and their effect on the climate.
About the research group
Mitigation (of climate change) is a human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases. Mitigation also includes reduction of other factors that contribute directly or indirectly to climate change, such as short-lived climate forcers (methane, black carbon, sulfur dioxide, and similar).
We focus on understanding the trends and drivers of historical and future emissions, and how they affect the carbon cycle and climate system. We study recent trends in emissions and quantify the factors causing emission trends to change. We lead the emissions component of the Global Carbon Budget, and are also involved in the Global Methane Budget and Global N2O budget. More broadly we study the carbon cycle and climate system, with an emphasis of using simple models to help understand policy relevant processes. Our work on emissions also looks at methods of verification, whether through alternative data sources or observation-based methods. Key projects include the Global Carbon Budget, 4C, VERIFY, Coco₂, EYE-CLIMA, and Pathfinder.
We also study scenarios for future emissions in both the short-term (next few years), medium-term (up to 2030) and the long-term (up to 2100 and beyond). Important activities include the relationship between temperature and cumulative emissions (carbon budgets, zero emission commitment), the role of short-lived climate forcers in mitigation, and the opportunities and challenges of climate mitigation within the context of social, political, and technological constraints. We are particularly interested in how scenarios are generated and used, and alternative methods of communicating key insights from scenario analysis. Key projects include Paris Reinforce, IAM COMPACT, DIAMOND, ESM2025, and PROVIDE.
We place emphasis on clear presentation of findings and communicate our findings to a broader audience.
Members of the group
Global fossil co₂ emissions increase amidst turmoil in energy markets
Global fossil co₂ emissions are expected to grow 1.0% in 2022 as the COVID recovery continues amidst turmoil in energy markets. Growth in oil use, particularly aviation, and coal use are behind most of the increase in 2022.
Oil and gas policy | International climate policy | Carbon budget | Carbon emissions globally
Back to the future: About scenarios and what they can tell us
The latest report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) completes its trilogy on causes, impacts and solutions relating to global warming. The key to understanding the solutions lie in the scenarios that illustrate how society may develop towards a carbon-free future.
Large uncertainty in warming outcomes of current policies and emission pledges
During the recent Glasgow Climate Conference (COP26) there was a lot of focus on the climate outcomes of new climate policy pledges. A new analysis shows that these outcomes are more uncertain then often assumed.
Carbon emissions globally | International climate policy | Climate Models | Emission scenarios
PROVIDE: Paris Agreement Overshooting – Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs
Overshooting the Paris Agreement 1.5°C temperature thresholds is a distinct possibility, but what does such temperature overshoots imply for the planning and design of adaptation action? The PROVIDE project will deliver information on overshoot scenarios and expected impacts and their reversibility, covering both sectors and geographical regions. The information will directly feed into adaptation action.
Climate impacts internationally | Adaptation | Climate Models
ESM2025: Earth system models for the future
The ESM2025 EU-funded research project aims to build a new generation of Earth system models better fitted to support the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies in line with the Paris Agreement.
StressTest: Using scenarios to assess climate risk in the financial sector
Increasingly, financial decision-makers are asked to assess, disclose and respond to climate-related risks across a range of potential future scenarios. In the project StressTest, CICERO will produce scenario data and guidelines that will allow help financial actors to respond to regulatory initiatives on scenario use.
Emission scenarios | Climate risk | Climate finance