Precipitation changes

BUDGET will increase our understanding of the causes to why climate models have such large differences in future Arctic rainfall and summer precipitation in northern Europe. This will be accomplished using satellite data and climate model calculations over the last 40 years. The analyzes will provide knowledge of whether processes related to transport in the atmosphere, evaporation or absorption of radiation are the reasons for different results from the climate models. By using and developing the climate models with most realistic precipitation changes and largescale processes in accordance with ground-based observations and satellite measurements, we can improve estimates of precipitation change and related climate extremes.

Dust is the most abundant species of aerosol in the atmosphere. While mineral dust from deserts is the largest source, an important but less well-studied component is soil dust from sparsely vegetated surfaces. Commonly referred to as “anthropogenic dust”, arising from the influence of human activities on land surfaces and subsequent increase in wind erosion and dust emissions, this source is believed to contribute a substantial fraction to the total global dust load. However, the contribution and climate impact of anthropogenic dust, through interactions with radiation, clouds and precipitation, is poorly quantified.

Emissions of Asian Anthropogenic Aerosols (A3) are rapidly changing - most notably black carbon and sulphate aerosol precursors from India and China. The resulting range of climate impacts and societal hazards may dominate regionally over greenhouse gas induced trends for the next several decades, but the implications are as yet insufficiently explored. CATHY (Climate implications of rapid changes in Asian Anthropogenic Aerosol emissions: Temperature, Hydrological cycle and variabilitY) tackles the urgent need for quantifying climate related hazards resulting from ongoing and projected changes in A3 emissions.

The EU-project MYRIAD-EU aims to enable decision-makers to develop forward-looking disaster risk management pathways that takes into account trade-offs and synergies across sectors, hazards and scales.

Increasing heat extremes, reduced summer precipitation and higher rainfall intensities are some of the climate change impacts facing the Western Balkans. To strengthen local researchers’ ability to understand the current and coming changes in climate extremes, CICERO researchers are involved in an EU funded capacity building project with the University of Novi Sad in Serbia.

ClimINVEST brought climate scientists and investors together to provide transparency on methodologies for physical climate risk assessment, and develop guidance tools that inform investors’ risk management processes.

The main objective of SUPER is to quantify the influence of anthropogenic activity on sub-daily extreme precipitation in highly populated regions

Predicting how the climate will change over the next 20-50 years, as well as defining emissions pathways to keep the world on track, requires a better understanding of how several human and natural factors will affect the climate in coming decades. These include how atmospheric aerosols affect the Earth’s radiation budget, and the roles of clouds and oceans in driving climate change.