Climate Scientist in the Climate Systems Group
At CICERO Carley works on a range of topics, often related to climate extremes. This includes looking at short term trends in extremes indices and the influence of internal variability, emergence of extremes indices, the effects of changes in anthropogenic aerosols on extremes, and changes in hazard indices in the polar regions. She will also look at teleconnections between changes in sea ice and midlatitude weather and climate.
She has also worked on:
- The effect of volcanic eruptions on the hydrological cycle
- The contribution of atmospheric circulation variability to decadal to multi-decadal temperature trends and anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics.
- The benefits of increasing resolution for simulating European climate extremes for both global and regional models.
- The prolonged heatwave of summer 2018 over Scandinavia, and any changes in the likelihood of the unusual atmospheric circulation pattern that accompanied it (persistent blocking, and far-north jet stream)
- Chapter Scientist for the IPCC WG1 6th assessment report, Chapter 12 "Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment"
- November 2020 onwards: Senior Scientist at CICERO, Climate Impacts group.
- 2017-2020 Postdoctoral Researcher at Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE), Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), France
- 2014-2017 Postdoctoral Research Associate in climate data analysis, University of Edinburgh, UK
- 2010-2014 PhD, University of Edinburgh, UK. The Effect of Volcanic Eruptions on the Hydrological cycle
Chapter scientist and contributing author on: Ranasinghe, R., A.C. Ruane, R. Vautard, N. Arnell, E. Coppola, F.A. Cruz, S. Dessai, A.S. Islam, M. Rahimi, D. Ruiz Carrascal, J. Sillmann, M.B. Sylla, C. Tebaldi, W. Wang, and R. Zaaboul, 2021: Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press.
Vousdoukas, M.I., Clarke, J., Ranasinghe, R., Reimann, L., Khalaf, N., Duong, T. M., Ouweneel, B., Sabour, S., Iles, C. E., Trisos, C. H., Feyen, L., Mentaschi, L., and Simpson, N. P. African heritage sites threatened as sea-level rise accelerates. Nat. Clim. Chang. 12, 256–262 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01280-1
Coppola, E., Nogherotto, R., Ciarlò, J. M., Giorgi, F., Meijgaard, E., Kadygrov, N., Iles, C. et al. (2020). Assessment of the European climate projections as simulated by the large EURO‐CORDEX regional and global climate model ensemble. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. doi:10.1029/2019JD032356.
Iles, C. E., Vautard, R., Strachan, J., Joussaume, S., Eggen, B. R., and Hewitt, C. D. (2020). The benefits of increasing resolution in global and regional climate simulations for European climate extremes. Geosci. Model Dev. 13, 5583–5607. doi:10.5194/gmd-13-5583-2020.
Paik, S., Min, S.-K., Iles, C. E., Fischer, E. M., and Schurer, A. P. (2020). Volcanic-induced global monsoon drying modulated by diverse El Niño responses. Sci. Adv. 6, eaba1212. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aba1212.
Vautard, R., Kadygrov, N., Iles, C., Boberg, F., Buonomo, E., Bülow, K., et al. (2020).Evaluation of the large EURO‐CORDEX regional climate model ensemble. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. doi:10.1029/2019JD032344.
Hegerl, G. C., Brönnimann, S., Cowan, T., Friedman, A. R., Hawkins, E., Iles, C., et al. (2019). Causes of climate change over the historical record. Environ. Res. Lett. 14, 123006. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab4557.
Iles, C., and Hegerl, G. (2017). Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in decadal temperature trends. Environ. Res. Lett. 12, 114010. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa9152.
Iles, C. E., and Hegerl, G. C. (2015). Systematic change in global patterns of streamflow following volcanic eruptions. Nat. Geosci. 8, 838–842. doi:10.1038/ngeo2545.
Iles, C. E., Hegerl, G. C., and Schurer, A. P. (2015). Volcanic eruptions and the global hydrological cycle. Past Glob. Chang. Mag. 23, 56–57. doi:10.22498/pages.23.2.56.
Mueller, B., Hauser, M., Iles, C., Rimi, R. H., Zwiers, F. W., and Wan, H. (2015). Lengthening of the growing season in wheat and maize producing regions. Weather Clim. Extrem. 9, 47–56. doi:10.1016/j.wace.2015.04.001.
Iles, C. E., and Hegerl, G. C. (2014). The global precipitation response to volcanic eruptions in the CMIP5 models. Environ. Res. Lett. 9, 104012. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104012.
Iles, C. E., Hegerl, G. C., Schurer, A. P., and Zhang, X. (2013). The effect of volcanic eruptions on global precipitation. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118, 8770–8786. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50678.
Sandstad, M., Schwingshackl, C., Iles, C.E., Sillmann, J., (2022): Climate extreme indices and heat stress indicators derived from CMIP6 global climate projections- available from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Datastore (CDS). This is a dataset containing 27 ETCCDI indices and 5 heat stress indicators for CMIP6 models for the historical period and 4 scenarios. The heat stress indicators are available in both raw and bias corrected formats at daily resolution.
CATHY - Climate implications of rapid changes in Asian Anthropogenic Aerosol emissions
Emissions of Asian Anthropogenic Aerosols (A3) are rapidly changing - most notably black carbon and sulphate aerosol precursors from India and China. The resulting range of climate impacts and societal hazards may dominate regionally over greenhouse gas induced trends for the next several decades, but the implications are as yet insufficiently explored. CATHY (Climate implications of rapid changes in Asian Anthropogenic Aerosol emissions: Temperature, Hydrological cycle and variabilitY) tackles the urgent need for quantifying climate related hazards resulting from ongoing and projected changes in A3 emissions.
Climate impacts internationally | Temperature changes | Atmospheric particles | Precipitation changes | Air pollution | Climate Models | Extreme weather | Climate risk
EXtremeClimTwin: Building capacity on climate extremes through cooperation
Increasing heat extremes, reduced summer precipitation and higher rainfall intensities are some of the climate change impacts facing the Western Balkans. To strengthen local researchers’ ability to understand the current and coming changes in climate extremes, CICERO researchers are involved in an EU funded capacity building project with the University of Novi Sad in Serbia.
Climate impacts internationally | Adaptation | Precipitation changes | Climate risk | Heat waves | Flooding | Extreme weather
SUSCAP: Developing resilience and tolerance of crop resource use efficiency to climate change and air pollution
The SUSCAP project is investigating how climate change and air pollution impact crop growth, development and yield in Europe with the aim of increasing the sustainability of agriculture and reduction in the threats to crop resources use efficiency.
Climate impacts internationally | Food and agriculture | Air pollution
The Climate Impacts group is an interdisciplinary group with high-level expertise on climate, air-pollution and economic modeling. We conduct comprehensive quantitative impact and risk analyses, including vulnerability, exposure and hazard components.