CICERO - Center for International Climate Research

Phone: +47 22 00 47 39 /


I am a Geo-ecologist (MSc) and specialized in analyses of climate extremes in climate models (PhD, IMPRS ESM, Hamburg). 

I have done work related to various factors that can drive changes in climate extremes, such as climate variability and anthropogenic activities (e.g., greenhouse gases and air pollution), and evaluation of climate model simulations. In my current research, I use interdisciplinary approaches for better integration of natural and social sciences. Particularly, I am interested in relating physical and statistical aspects of climate extremes to socio-economic impacts and questions related to risk assessment and decision making.

Check out the new film about Translating weather extremes into the future, an "event-based" story about flood risk in Norway.

Check out my new book: Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment


International engagement

  • Lead Author for IPCC AR6 WG1, Chapter 12 "Climate change information for regional impact and for risk assessment"
  • Development Team Member of the Knowledge-Action-Network on Emergent Risks and Extreme Events (Risk KAN)
  • Member of the Scientific Committee for the Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) Programme 
  • Co-lead WCRP Grand Challenges on Climate Extremes (GC Extremes)
  • Contributing Author to IPCC AR5 WG1, Chapters 9 and 12 (IPCC 2013)
  • Invited expert to the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) (2010-2017)
  • Expert member of the WMO CCl Task Team on Tailored Climate Information (TT-TCI) (2014-2018)

Podcast with Nature Editor Michael White - Jana Sillmann and climate extremes


Selected past events:

IPCC Workshop on Regional Climate Projections and their Use in Impacts and Risk Analysis Studies" (São José dos Campos, Brazil, 2015), Report

Workshop on Understanding, Modeling and Predicting Climate Extremes (Oslo, October 5-7, 2015), Paper

Extreme Events and Environments -E3S Future Earth workshop (Berlin, 2016)

FutureEarth-PROVIA-IPCC Workshop on Risk and Solutions (Stockholm, 2016)

Session on "Climate extremes and their implications in impact modelling studies", AGU Fall meeting 2016, (San Francisco, USA, 2016)

Session on "Climate extremes, biosphere and society: impacts, remote sensing, and feedbacks (co-organized)", EGU (Vienna, 2017)

IPCC AR6 scoping meeting (Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, May 2017)

Workshop on "Indicators for climate extremes and socio-economic impacts under different emission targets" (JRC Ispra, Italy, October 2017)

GEWEX Open Science Conference: Extremes and Water on the Edge, Canmore, AB, Canada (May 2018)

  • Session on “Climate Extremes, Ecosystems and Society” Conveners: Jana Sillmann, Markus Reichstein, Dáithí Stone
  • WCRP side event on the Knowledge Action Network on Emergent Risks and Extreme Events (Risk KAN)

IPCC Expert Meeting on Assessing Climate Information for Regions, Trieste, Italy (May 16-18, 2018)

Scenarios Forum Cnference, Denver, CO, USA (March 2019)

Workshop on Physical modeling supporting a "storyline approach" , Oslo, Norway (April 2019)

2019 Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland (May 2019)


Upcoming events:

EGU General Assembly 2020, Vienna


Selected recent publications:

Russo, S., J.Sillmann, S. Sippel, M. J. Barcikowska, C. Ghisetti, M. Smid & B. O’Neill, 2019: Half a degree and rapid socioeconomic development matter for heatwave risk, Nature Communications 10, doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-08070-4. PDF download

Sillmann, J., S. Russo, S. Sippel and K. Alnes, 2018: From Hazard to Risk, BAMS, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0327.1. PDF download

Schaller, N., J. Sillmann, J. Anstey, E.M. Fischer, C.M. Grams and S. Russo, 2018: Influence of blocking on Northern European and Western Russian heatwaves in large climate model ensembles. Environ. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaba55. PDF download

Sillmann, J., T. Thorarinsdottir, N. Keenlyside, N. Schaller et al. 2017: Understanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities, Weather and Climate Extremes, 18, 65-74, doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2017.10.003. PDF download


Two most cited publications:

Sillmann, J., V. V. Kharin, X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers and D. Bronaugh, 2013: Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Part 1: Model evaluation in the present climate. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 1716-1733, doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50203. DOWNLOAD LINK

Sillmann, J., V. V. Kharin, F. W. Zwiers, X. Zhang and D. Bronaugh, 2013: Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Part 2: Future climate projections. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 2473-2493, doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50188. DOWNLOAD LINK



  • Translating Weather Extremes into the Future – a case for Norway will be taking a novel “Tales of future weather” approach. This approach suggests that scenarios tailored to a specific region and stakeholder in combination with numerical weather prediction models will offer a more realistic picture of what future weather might look like, hence facilitating adaptation planning and implementation.
  • ClimateXL Weather and climate extremes are likely to be one of the largest societal challenges associated with climate change in this century. Under climate change, these extreme events will intensify and become more frequent, and consequently the risk of severe and costly damage for humans and infrastructure will increase.
  • SUPER - SUb-daily Precipitation Extremes in highly-populated Regions The main objective of SUPER is to quantify the influence of anthropogenic activity on sub-daily extreme precipitation in highly populated regions
  • RECEIPT RECEIPT (REmote Climate Effects and their Impact on European sustainability, Policy and Trade) will map potential impacts and risks of climate extremes outside Europe on European socio-economic sectors.
  • HEATCOST HEATCOST will quantify health risks attributable to heat and air pollution (with a particular focus on air pollution from wildfires) in main world regions under selected climate scenarios and socioeconomic pathways. 
  • ENBEL: Connecting health and climate change research Climate change is according to the WHO the greatest threat to human health in the 21st century. By bringing together leaders in climate change and health research the CICERO-coordinated Horizon 2020 project ENBEL will contribute with knowledge and policy advice on climate change and health links.
  • EXHAUSTION Increasing temperatures and heat waves due to climate change, combined with air pollution, constitute major health risks, and could cause an increase in cardiovascular and respiratory diseases across Europe. EXHAUSTION (Exposure to heat and air pollution in Europe – cardiopulmonary impacts and benefits of mitigation and adaptation) aims to quantify the changes in cardiopulmonary mortality and morbidity due to extreme heat and air pollution (including from wildfires) under selected climate scenarios.
  • EXtremeClimTwin: Building capacity on climate extremes through cooperation Increasing heat extremes, reduced summer precipitation and higher rainfall intensities are some of the climate change impacts facing the Western Balkans. To strengthen local researchers’ ability to understand the current and coming changes in climate extremes, CICERO researchers are involved in an EU funded capacity building project with the University of Novi Sad in Serbia.

Web articles

  • Heat waves in Africa every year from 2040? Climate analysis shows that periods of unusually hot weather are on the rise for one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change, even if the increase in global average temperature remains at a modest level.
  • Making sense of future climate Did you believe only science fiction deal with futuretypes? Well, think again. A bunch of real scientists is carving out possible futuristic climate scenarios right now, and if you live in Norway, they might be zooming in on your hometown.
  • A wet, hot future There are heat waves, and then there are humid heat waves. A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture. This is going to make tomorrow’s heat waves dangerously hot.
  • Human health under threat by extreme heat and air pollution Extreme heat and high levels of air pollution create a major and immediate threat to human health. How should climate research respond?
  • Double trouble: Climate change and air pollution Smog is already damaging crops in northern India. What  will happen when both air pollution and temperature increase?
  • Development reduces heatwave risk Increased socio-economic development in low development countries can reduce the risk of people suffering serious harm from heatwaves, shows a new study published in Nature Communications.
  • Stories to prepare us for weather extremes How could academics improve their physical understanding of climate change to help us better imagine what weather the future might hold? By way of narratives and storytelling, some researchers suggest.
  • Western Norway to see more heavy rain and flooding in the future The last week of September, Western Norway saw the heaviest rainfall in 13 years. Such downpours will become more common in the future as global warming leads to more water in the atmosphere, climate scientists warn.
  • New book on climate extremes and how they are addressed A new book edited by CICERO researcher Jana Sillmann, presents challenges, opportunities and various methodologies for the analysis of climate extremes related to impacts across different sectors.