A New Starting Point for Global Emissions Scenarios
Sal 1: Corporate net-zero strategies, national climate plans, financial risk assessments, and international climate negotiations are all built on the emissions scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports.
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29.04.2026, 14:15 - 29.04.2026, 15:00
Rebel - Universitetsgaten, inngang Munchs gate 2
CICERO
But these emissions pathways are not created in isolation. They rest on assumptions about how the world works, including geopolitics, economic growth, technological development, inequality, governance, and international cooperation.
Today, the global context looks markedly different from even five years ago. Geopolitical fragmentation is rising. Climate impacts are accelerating. Policy landscapes are shifting. Development pathways are diverging.
Researchers are now re-examining the foundational assumptions underlying the emissions scenarios.
What does this mean for the next generation of emissions scenarios?
How might updated assumptions reshape future modelling results?
And what are the implications for those whose strategies and policies depend on these scenarios?
This event explores how an update to the SSP framework could influence future emissions modelling, and what that means for decision-makers.
Programme
14:15 Introduction
14:18 – A New Geopolitical Reality
Merethe Dotterud Leiren
14:25 – A Changing World: Updating the Scenario Framework for Modelling
Bas van Ruijven
14:32 – Implications for Next Generation Emissions Scenarios
Ben Sanderson
14:39 – Panel Discussion
Moderator: Jan Fuglestvedt
15:00 – Close