CICERO - Center for International Climate Research
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Meny
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Phone: +47 22 00 47 82 /

E-mail: carley.iles@cicero.oslo.no

Climate Scientist, Climate Impacts Group

At CICERO I focus on climate extremes, particularly heat extremes and heat stress. I am involved with projects investigating the combined effect of heat stress and air-pollution on human health and agriculture. I am also a chapter scientist for the IPCC WG1 Sixth Assessment Report, for Chapter 12: Climate change information for regional impact and for risk assessment.

I have also worked on:

  • The effect of volcanic eruptions on the hydrological cycle,
  • The contribution of atmospheric circulation variability to decadal to multi-decadal temperature trends and anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. 
  • The benefits of increasing resolution for simulating European climate extremes for both global and regional models.
  • The prolonged heatwave of summer 2018 over Scandinavia, and any changes in the likelihood of the unusual atmospheric circulation pattern that accompanied it (persistent blocking, and far-north jet stream)

Background

  • November 2020 onwards: Senior Scientist at CICERO, Climate Impacts group.
  • 2017-2020 Postdoctoral Researcher at Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE), Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), France
  • 2014-2017 Postdoctoral Research Associate in climate data analysis, University of Edinburgh, UK
  • 2010-2014 PhD, University of Edinburgh, UK. The Effect of Volcanic Eruptions on the Hydrological cycle

Projects

HEATCOST: HEATCOST will quantify health risks attributable to heat and air pollution (with a particular focus on air pollution from wildfires) in main world regions under selected climate scenarios and socioeconomic pathways.

EXHAUSTION: Air pollution is currently the largest environmental killer in Europe, causing 500,000 premature deaths annually. Heatwaves can make air pollution more lethal and cause more heart and lung diseases. Together with Universitetet i Oslo (UiO) the Norwegian Institute of Public Health and 11 other European institutions CICERO will help increase European resilience towards climate change.

SUSCAP: Developing resilience and tolerance of crop resource use efficiency to climate change and air pollution

ExtremeClimTwin: Twinning for the advancement of data-driven multidisciplinary research into hydro-climatic extremes to support risk assessment and decision making (EXtremeClimTwin) 

 

Publications

Coppola, E., Nogherotto, R., Ciarlò, J. M., Giorgi, F., Meijgaard, E., Kadygrov, N., Iles, C. et al. (2020). Assessment of the European climate projections as simulated by the large EURO‐CORDEX regional and global climate model ensemble. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. doi:10.1029/2019JD032356.

Iles, C. E., Vautard, R., Strachan, J., Joussaume, S., Eggen, B. R., and Hewitt, C. D. (2020). The benefits of increasing resolution in global and regional climate simulations for European climate extremes. Geosci. Model Dev. 13, 5583–5607. doi:10.5194/gmd-13-5583-2020.

Paik, S., Min, S.-K., Iles, C. E., Fischer, E. M., and Schurer, A. P. (2020). Volcanic-induced global monsoon drying modulated by diverse El Niño responses. Sci. Adv. 6, eaba1212. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aba1212.

Vautard, R., Kadygrov, N., Iles, C., Boberg, F., Buonomo, E., Bülow, K., et al. (2020).Evaluation of the large EURO‐CORDEX regional climate model ensemble. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. doi:10.1029/2019JD032344.

Hegerl, G. C., Brönnimann, S., Cowan, T., Friedman, A. R., Hawkins, E., Iles, C., et al. (2019). Causes of climate change over the historical record. Environ. Res. Lett. 14, 123006. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab4557.

Iles, C., and Hegerl, G. (2017). Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in decadal temperature trends. Environ. Res. Lett. 12, 114010. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa9152.

Iles, C. E., and Hegerl, G. C. (2015). Systematic change in global patterns of streamflow following volcanic eruptions. Nat. Geosci. 8, 838–842. doi:10.1038/ngeo2545.

Iles, C. E., Hegerl, G. C., and Schurer, A. P. (2015). Volcanic eruptions and the global hydrological cycle. Past Glob. Chang. Mag. 23, 56–57. doi:10.22498/pages.23.2.56.

Mueller, B., Hauser, M., Iles, C., Rimi, R. H., Zwiers, F. W., and Wan, H. (2015). Lengthening of the growing season in wheat and maize producing regions. Weather Clim. Extrem. 9, 47–56. doi:10.1016/j.wace.2015.04.001.

Iles, C. E., and Hegerl, G. C. (2014). The global precipitation response to volcanic eruptions in the CMIP5 models. Environ. Res. Lett. 9, 104012. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104012.

Iles, C. E., Hegerl, G. C., Schurer, A. P., and Zhang, X. (2013). The effect of volcanic eruptions on global precipitation. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118, 8770–8786. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50678.

Projects

  • EXtremeClimTwin: Building capacity on climate extremes through cooperation Increasing heat extremes, reduced summer precipitation and higher rainfall intensities are some of the climate change impacts facing the Western Balkans. To strengthen local researchers’ ability to understand the current and coming changes in climate extremes, CICERO researchers are involved in an EU funded capacity building project with the University of Novi Sad in Serbia.
  • CATHY Emissions of Asian Anthropogenic Aerosols (A3) are rapidly changing - most notably black carbon and sulphate aerosol precursors from India and China. The resulting range of climate impacts and societal hazards may dominate regionally over greenhouse gas induced trends for the next several decades, but the implications are as yet insufficiently explored. CATHY (Climate implications of rapid changes in Asian Anthropogenic Aerosol emissions: Temperature, Hydrological cycle and variabilitY) tackles the urgent need for quantifying climate related hazards resulting from ongoing and projected changes in A3 emissions.