CICERO - Senter for klimaforskning

Energy Market Impacts of Nuclear Power Phase-Out Policies

Solveig Glomsrød, Taoyuan Wei, Torben Kenea Mideksa, Bjørn Hallvard Samset

After the Fukushima disaster in March 2011 safety concerns have escalated and policies towards nuclear power are being reconsidered in several countries. This article presents a study of the effect of nuclear power phase-out on regional electricity prices. We consider 4 scenarios with various levels of ambition to scale down the nuclear industry using a multiple region, multiple sector global general equilibrium model. Non-nuclear power production follows the New Policies scenario of the World Energy Outlook (IEA, 2010). Phase-out in Germany and Switzerland increases electricity prices of OECD-Europe moderately by 2-3 per cent early on to 4-5 per cent by 2035 if transmission capacity within the region is sufficient. If all regions shut down old plants built before 2011, North America, OECD-Europe and Japan face increasing electricity prices in the range of 23-28 per cent in 2035. These price increases illustrate the incentives for further investments in renewable electricity or improved technologies in nuclear power production.

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  • År: 2013
  • Språk: English
  • Serie/Rapport: CICERO Working Paper;2013:01