CICERO - Senter for klimaforskning

Accelerated increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation from future aerosol reductions

Laura J. Wilcox, Zhen Liu, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Ed Hawkins, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Kalle Nordling, Sabine Undorf, Massimo Bollasina, Annica M.L. Ekman, Srinath Krishnan, Joonas Merikanto, Andrew G. Turner

There is a large range of future aerosol emissions scenarios explored in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), with plausible pathways spanning a range of possibilities from large global reductions in emissions by 2050 to moderate global increases over the same period. Diversity in emissions across the pathways is particularly large over Asia. Rapid reductions in anthropogenic aerosol and precursor emissions between the present day and the 2050s lead to enhanced increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation relative to scenarios with weak air quality policies. However, the effects of aerosol reductions do not persist to the end of the 21st century for precipitation, when instead the response to greenhouse gases dominates differences across the SSPs. The relative magnitude and spatial distribution of aerosol changes are particularly important for South Asian summer monsoon precipitation changes. Precipitation increases here are initially suppressed in SSPs 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5 relative to SSP1-1.9 when the impact of remote emission decreases is counteracted by continued increases in South Asian emissions.

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