Any limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO2 emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. A blend of these endpoints emerges as the most viable option. For a carbon quota consistent with a 2 °C warming limit (relative to pre-industrial levels), the necessary long-term mitigation rates are very challenging (typically over 5% per year), both because of strong limits on future emissions from the global carbon quota and also the likely short-term persistence in emissions growth in many regions.
Mer detaljer
- DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2384
- År: 2014
- Tidsskrift: Nature Climate Change
- Språk: English
- Volum: 4
- Hefte: 10
- Side: 873 - 879
- Issn: 1758-678X