CICERO - Senter for klimaforskning

Energy market impacts of nuclear power phase-out policies

Solveig Glomsrød, Taoyuan Wei, Torben Kenea Mideksa, Bjørn Hallvard Samset

Since the Fukushima disaster in Japan in March 2011, safety concerns have escalated and policies toward nuclear power are being reconsidered in several countries. This article presents a study of the upward pressure on regional electricity prices from nuclear power phase out in four scenarios with various levels of ambition to scale down the nuclear power industry. We use a global general equilibrium model to calculate regional electricity prices that are matching demand with the constrained power supply after the nuclear power phase out. Nuclear power exit in Germany and Switzerland might increase electricity prices in Europe moderately by 2–3 % early on to 4–5 % by 2035 if transmission capacity within the region is sufficient. In a gradual and comprehensive phase out of plants built before 2011, North America, Europe, and Japan face an upward pressure on electricity prices in the range of 23–28 % towards 2035, representing the incentives for further investments in any kind of electricity.

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