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E-post: carley.iles@cicero.oslo.no

Climate Scientist, Climate Systems Group

At CICERO I work on a range of topics, often related to climate extremes. This includes looking at short term trends in extremes indices and the influence of internal variability, emergence of extremes indices, the effects of changes in anthropogenic aerosols on extremes, and changes in hazard indices in the polar regions. I will also look at teleconnections between changes in sea ice and midlatitude weather and climate.

I have also worked on:

  • The effect of volcanic eruptions on the hydrological cycle
  • The contribution of atmospheric circulation variability to decadal to multi-decadal temperature trends and anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics.
  • The benefits of increasing resolution for simulating European climate extremes for both global and regional models.
  • The prolonged heatwave of summer 2018 over Scandinavia, and any changes in the likelihood of the unusual atmospheric circulation pattern that accompanied it (persistent blocking, and far-north jet stream)
  • Chapter Scientist for the IPCC WG1 6th assessment report, Chapter 12 "Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment"

Background

  • November 2020 onwards: Senior Scientist at CICERO, Climate Impacts group.
  • 2017-2020 Postdoctoral Researcher at Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE), Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), France
  • 2014-2017 Postdoctoral Research Associate in climate data analysis, University of Edinburgh, UK
  • 2010-2014 PhD, University of Edinburgh, UK. The Effect of Volcanic Eruptions on the Hydrological cycle

Projects

CRiceS Climate Relevant interactions and feedbacks: the key role of sea ice and Snow in the polar and global climate system

CATHY Climate implications of rapid changes in Asian Anthropogenic Aerosol emissions

HEATCOST: HEATCOST will quantify health risks attributable to heat and air pollution (with a particular focus on air pollution from wildfires) in main world regions under selected climate scenarios and socioeconomic pathways.

EXHAUSTION: Air pollution is currently the largest environmental killer in Europe, causing 500,000 premature deaths annually. Heatwaves can make air pollution more lethal and cause more heart and lung diseases. Together with Universitetet i Oslo (UiO) the Norwegian Institute of Public Health and 11 other European institutions CICERO will help increase European resilience towards climate change.

SUSCAP: Developing resilience and tolerance of crop resource use efficiency to climate change and air pollution

ExtremeClimTwin: Twinning for the advancement of data-driven multidisciplinary research into hydro-climatic extremes to support risk assessment and decision making (EXtremeClimTwin)

 

Publications

Chapter scientist and contributing author on: Ranasinghe, R., A.C. Ruane, R. Vautard, N. Arnell, E. Coppola, F.A. Cruz, S. Dessai, A.S. Islam, M. Rahimi, D. Ruiz Carrascal, J. Sillmann, M.B. Sylla, C. Tebaldi, W. Wang, and R. Zaaboul, 2021: Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press.

Vousdoukas, M.I., Clarke, J., Ranasinghe, R., Reimann, L., Khalaf, N., Duong, T. M., Ouweneel, B., Sabour, S., Iles, C. E., Trisos, C. H., Feyen, L., Mentaschi, L., and Simpson, N. P. African heritage sites threatened as sea-level rise accelerates. Nat. Clim. Chang. 12, 256–262 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01280-1

Coppola, E., Nogherotto, R., Ciarlò, J. M., Giorgi, F., Meijgaard, E., Kadygrov, N., Iles, C. et al. (2020). Assessment of the European climate projections as simulated by the large EURO‐CORDEX regional and global climate model ensemble. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. doi:10.1029/2019JD032356.

Iles, C. E., Vautard, R., Strachan, J., Joussaume, S., Eggen, B. R., and Hewitt, C. D. (2020). The benefits of increasing resolution in global and regional climate simulations for European climate extremes. Geosci. Model Dev. 13, 5583–5607. doi:10.5194/gmd-13-5583-2020.

Paik, S., Min, S.-K., Iles, C. E., Fischer, E. M., and Schurer, A. P. (2020). Volcanic-induced global monsoon drying modulated by diverse El Niño responses. Sci. Adv. 6, eaba1212. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aba1212.

Vautard, R., Kadygrov, N., Iles, C., Boberg, F., Buonomo, E., Bülow, K., et al. (2020).Evaluation of the large EURO‐CORDEX regional climate model ensemble. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. doi:10.1029/2019JD032344.

Hegerl, G. C., Brönnimann, S., Cowan, T., Friedman, A. R., Hawkins, E., Iles, C., et al. (2019). Causes of climate change over the historical record. Environ. Res. Lett. 14, 123006. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab4557.

Iles, C., and Hegerl, G. (2017). Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in decadal temperature trends. Environ. Res. Lett. 12, 114010. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa9152.

Iles, C. E., and Hegerl, G. C. (2015). Systematic change in global patterns of streamflow following volcanic eruptions. Nat. Geosci. 8, 838–842. doi:10.1038/ngeo2545.

Iles, C. E., Hegerl, G. C., and Schurer, A. P. (2015). Volcanic eruptions and the global hydrological cycle. Past Glob. Chang. Mag. 23, 56–57. doi:10.22498/pages.23.2.56.

Mueller, B., Hauser, M., Iles, C., Rimi, R. H., Zwiers, F. W., and Wan, H. (2015). Lengthening of the growing season in wheat and maize producing regions. Weather Clim. Extrem. 9, 47–56. doi:10.1016/j.wace.2015.04.001.

Iles, C. E., and Hegerl, G. C. (2014). The global precipitation response to volcanic eruptions in the CMIP5 models. Environ. Res. Lett. 9, 104012. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104012.

Iles, C. E., Hegerl, G. C., Schurer, A. P., and Zhang, X. (2013). The effect of volcanic eruptions on global precipitation. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118, 8770–8786. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50678.

 

Datasets

Sandstad, M., Schwingshackl, C., Iles, C.E., Sillmann, J., (2022): Climate extreme indices and heat stress indicators derived from CMIP6 global climate projections- available from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Datastore (CDS). This is a dataset containing 27 ETCCDI indices and 5 heat stress indicators for CMIP6 models for the historical period and 4 scenarios. The heat stress indicators are available in both raw and bias corrected formats at daily resolution.

 

Prosjekter

  • CATHY Menneskeskapte utslipp av små, svevende partikler - kalt aerosoler - har en sterk påvirkning på klimaet. Gjennom nyere historie har de motvirket noe av oppvarmingen fra utslipp av drivhusgasser, og i dag regner vi med at aerosolene kjøler jordens overflate med opp til en halv grad Celsius. I tillegg påvirker de regnmønstre, monsunene i Afrika og Asia, og hvor variabelt været er.