CICERO - Center for International Climate Research
Photo by eberhard grossgasteiger on Unsplash

Photo by eberhard grossgasteiger on Unsplash

New climate sensitivity estimates from CICERO highlighted in ESD

News - News from CICERO

Published 25.06.2018

CICERO scientist Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie works tirelessly to increase our understanding of climate sensitivity - and her work does not go unnoticed.

Individual articles do not revolutionize the science, but are still important steps towards new knowledge. Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie's latest article, for example, has now been labelled a 'Highlight article' in the Earth System Dynamics (ESD) journal. 

ESD is an open access journal within the prestigious European Geosciences Union family with an interdisciplinary perspective on the functioning of the whole earth system and global change.

Here is the article summary:

Inferred effective climate sensitivity (ECSinf) is estimated using a method combining radiative forcing (RF) time series and several series of observed ocean heat content (OHC) and near-surface temperature change in a Bayesian framework using a simple energy balance model and a stochastic model. The model is updated compared to our previous analysis by using recent forcing estimates from IPCC, including OHC data for the deep ocean, and extending the time series to 2014.

In our main analysis, the mean value of the estimated ECSinfis 2.0 °C, with a median value of 1.9 °C and a 90 % credible interval (CI) of 1.2–3.1 °C. The mean estimate has recently been shown to be consistent with the higher values for the equilibrium climate sensitivity estimated by climate models. The transient climate response (TCR) is estimated to have a mean value of 1.4 °C (90 % CI 0.9–2.0 °C), and in our main analysis the posterior aerosol effective radiative forcing is similar to the range provided by the IPCC.

We show a strong sensitivity of the estimated ECSinf to the choice of a priori RF time series, excluding pre-1950 data and the treatment of OHC data. Sensitivity analysis performed by merging the upper (0–700 m) and the deep-ocean OHC or using only one OHC dataset (instead of four in the main analysis) both give an enhancement of the mean ECSinf by about 50 % from our best estimate.